My Pessimist and Optimist friends both had my ears this week leading up to the San Jose State opener on Sept. 3. Not surprisingly, they both had much different visions of where Tulsa’s 2016 football season was headed.
The Optimist was drinking his happy Kool-Aid and predicting 12-2, while the Pessimist was taking his Maalox and predicting 4-8.
Feeling like Pinto in Animal House with two very different beings on my right and left shoulders, I waded through the information and disinformation.
The Optimist was pointing to Tulsa’s offense, saying it would have one of the greatest years in TU football history. He is already getting his “Dane for Heisman” shirts designed and ready to be printed.
With Evans’ experience, surrounded by playmaking talent and a passer friendly offense, Evans could absolutely have a monster senior season. With a healthy Keevan Lucas returning along with a strong supporting cast of receivers, Tulsa could be extremely scary to defend.
The Optimist points out great senior seasons by past TU quarterbacks throwing to great receivers have led to some of Tulsa’s best seasons. And Evans is coming off a mostly strong 2015 season.
Starting the senior passing excellence was the combo of Glenn Dobbs to Sax Judd (third and 17th overall picks in the NFL Draft, respectively). Tulsa’s 1942 team went undefeated in the regular season, went to the Sugar Bowl and finished ranked No. 4.
Ronnie Morris to Willie Roberts (13th round and 4th round, NFL Draft) in 1952 led to an 8-2-1 record, a Gator Bowl appearance, and No. 12 season ending ranking. NFL Hall of Fame tackle Bob St. Clair was a senior on that team.
The 1964 team had Jerry Rhome and the 1965 team had Billy Guy Anderson. Both were throwing to Howard Twilley. Rhome and Twilley finished second in the Heisman voting in 1964 and 1965, respectively. NCAA records were set. All three have their jerseys retired at TU. Both teams went to the Bluebonnet Bowl, finishing 9-2 (No. 18 rank) and 8-3.
The 1991 team featured future NFL starters T.J. Rubley (9th round) throwing to Chris Penn (3rd round). The team went 10-2, finished ranked No. 21, and won the Freedom Bowl.
The Jeb Blount (2nd round) to NFL Hall of Famer Steve Largent combo in 1975, and Paul Smith to Brennan Marion and Charles Clay in 2007 also produced memorable seasons with records of 7-4 and 10-4.
Setting all of that aside, Tulsa’s offense in 2016 is loaded. Josh Atkinson (1,071 yards) and Justin Hobbs (551 yards) are proven receivers that complement Lucas. D’Angelo Brewer has electrifying speed at running back, and could put up huge numbers as well after finishing with 837 yards rushing last season.
The defense will likely be better. It wouldn’t take a lot to improve over last season’s performance. The returnees should be improved, and players like Jeremy Smith at defensive end and Kerwin Thomas at cornerback could have breakout seasons.
The schedule is manageable, but even the Optimist has his limits. He is projecting a loss in week two at Ohio State. Playing at Houston and Navy will be tough. But getting Cincinnati at home helps. And playing Memphis without its coach and quarterback from last season, Justin Fuente and first round draft pick Paxton Lynch, makes that a very winnable game.
But make no mistake. The key is Evans. Without him, it would be a very long season. Chad President and Ryan Rubley could develop into good quarterbacks, but aren’t anywhere near the competency level of Evans at this point.
But the Pessimist is still lingering. He points back to the 2004 and 2001 seasons.
So what do 2004 and 2001 have to do with 2016? Most of the current players can’t remember that far back.
The Pessimist points out that both those years were the second year for new coaches – Steve Kragthorpe in 2004 and Keith Burns in 2001. Both coaches took over seemingly lifeless teams, just as current TU coach Philip Montgomery did. TU won two games in 2014, and one game each in 2002 and 1999.
Both produced marked improvement in their first seasons, with Kragthorpe improving seven wins to 8-4 in the 2003 regular season, and Burns improving four wins to 5-7 in 2000 (best record from 1992 – 2002).
Yet TU fell to 4-8 in 2004 despite having returning senior quarterback James Kilian (7th round draft choice) throwing to Garrett Mills (5th round). And the 2001 Golden Hurricane won only two games the next two seasons.
The Pessimist is big on past history influencing the present. But being a pessimist, he thinks of the negative more than the positive.
More realistic thinking would dictate that if Evans plays well, Tulsa improves over its 6-6 regular season. The team is now more comfortable with Montgomery. The pieces are there for improvement.
Any chance for improvement begins with the season opener at home Saturday. Simply put, it is a must win game. Good teams beat the San Jose’s of the world.
San Jose State finished 5-7 in the regular season in 2015 and became bowl eligible because there are too many bowls. They defeated Georgia State in the 2015 Cure Bowl.
That resume isn’t very impressive. Still, it is the first game of the season and Tulsa will have to play well. First games can be tricky. San Jose State is likely to be a little below average for a major college football team.
The fact that the Spartans have a new defensive coordinator might affect the first few series. But it won’t likely affect the outcome.
The game will probably be high scoring, like most TU games this season, and Tulsa should prevail. As for the final record, eight wins is the most likely.
And if that happens, it will be time to break out the celebratory Kool-Aid. Maalox can stay on the shelf.
MORE TULSA FOOTBALL:
• Breaking down the depth chart. The Tulsa two-deep is a balance of youthful talent and veteran experience.
• Several Tulsa football commitments excelled in their season openers.
• San Jose State at Tulsa: Game Week Newsstand.
• Dane Evans and Keevan Lucas have a strong bond on and off the field.
• Tulsa Offense: How much improvement can be expected?