Tulsa can earn spot in AAC Championship game with win at Navy
In the usually formidable task of facing Navy, at least No. 22 Tulsa won't have to go against Malcolm Perry this year. And the Golden Hurricane hopes that Xavier Arline doesn't go all Davis Brin on them.
Perry, now with the Miami Dolphins, was an absolute nightmare to defend in his NCAA record-setting season in 2019. Without Perry, Navy (3-5, 3-3 AAC) is still tough, but the 2020 Midshipmen are still searching for an identity.
Tulsa (5-1, 5-0) is seeking to end what has been Navy's blockade to TU's plans during the previous five years of Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery's reign. The Golden Hurricane has the opportunity to break through that barrier this Saturday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. in Annapolis in what is increasingly becoming a special season for TU.
The Golden Hurricane is coming off an improbable, exhilarating 30-24 double overtime victory over Tulane which included the 96-yard, game ending interception return for a touchdown by Zaven Collins. That followed third-string quarterback Davis Brin's breathtaking debut, including Brin's Hail Mary to J.C. Santana to send the game into overtime.
The amazing Tulsa season so far has featured TU making its own breaks with comeback wins that seem to top each other every week. Tulsa hasn't had any such luck lately when playing Navy.
Controversial calls seemingly always go Navy's way against TU, from a disallowed fumble recovery to a coast to coast touchdown pass that was called back. Tulsa has been snake-bitten against the Midshipmen.
Add that to the fact that Navy's run-oriented option offense has been incredibly difficult for Tulsa to stop. Quarterbacks and fullbacks rushing for big chunks of yards on long, time-consuming drives have hindered the Golden Hurricane against the Midshipmen.
"Navy has always been a tough game for us. We are going to have our hands full, for sure," Montgomery said.
The first good news for TU is that Navy is in disarray at quarterback this season. Losing Perry for Navy has been as tough as when Tulsa lost Dane Evans after 2016. Offensive production for the quarterback has gone way down, and therefore, the Midshipmen offense hasn't been nearly as potent.
The most interesting part of Navy's season is that its offense has been transitioning into more passing. Especially during the two weeks before its extended, almost month long COVID-19 break before its season resumed last Saturday in a 10-7 home loss to Memphis.
That would be due to losing the great Malcolm Perry, who set an NCAA record for a quarterback with 2,017 yards rushing (155.1 per game) at 6.8 yards per carry. Perry, who went over 1,000 yards rushing in his two previous seasons, also averaged 95.2 yards passing per game in 2019.
Perry has caught 7 passes for 62 yards this season as a receiver for the Miami Dolphins.
In the 2019 game, Perry destroyed Tulsa, rushing for 218 yards and three touchdowns on just 20 carries (10.9 average). Navy only passed five times, completing three for 35 yards. Perry completed two of four for just nine yards, while a halfback pass for 26 yards from C.J. Williams accounted for the other yards.
Compare that to this year, where Navy has played five quarterbacks, with three currently in the rotation. And its quarterbacks average a paltry 1.4 yards per carry, with Dalen Morris and Tyger Goslin getting most of the action.
But don't bet against true freshman Xavier Arline playing a lot this week. Arline came into the Memphis game late in the third quarter, coincidentally around the same time Brin entered the Tulane game for Tulsa. After losing a costly fumble around midfield, Arline did lead Navy to a missed 45-yard field goal attempt that would have tied the game in the fourth quarter.
Arline finished the game with 12 yards rushing on three carries. He started and briefly played one game earlier in the season, and has rushed for 41 yards on 15 carries (2.7 per carry) this season. He is yet to throw a pass in his Navy career.
Rushing yardage has usually been a staple in Navy's offense. Five Navy quarterbacks have combined for just 159 yards on 116 carries. Morris has rushed for only 54 yards on 66 carries (0.8 average), while completing 31 of 58 for 555 yards. Goslin has 31 yards on 21 carries, while completing 15 of 35 passes for 333 yards.
Normally, Navy's pass attempts in a game are in the single digits. Sometimes two or three passes. Those isolated passes frequently have been successful because they catch opposing defenses by surprise.
The two weeks before its hiatus, however, had Navy going aerial.
In Navy's 51-37 loss at No. 22 SMU the week before the break, quarterbacks Dalen Morris and Tyger Goslin combined to complete 14 of 30 passes for 239 yards. The previous game in a 37-21 home loss to Houston, Morris was 10 of 18 for 206 yards.
In the previous five games, Navy had passed for 405 yards, completing 24 of 45 passes, compared with 445 yards on 24 of 48 passes for 445 yards in only the last two games before the break.
Last week against Memphis, however, Navy went back to ground time, with little results. Goslin started before being relieved by Arline, who was replaced by Morris with 12 second remaining on a desperation series. Goslin and Morris combined on four of 12 attempts for 85 yards and an interception. Goslin rushed five times for three yards.
Preparing for Navy's option running attack is always a difficult challenge. But add to that its recent passing binge, and Navy's offense is still mighty tough to prepare for.
"We've had some struggles against Navy," Montgomery said. "It's one of those teams where we're always sitting around and re-evaluating what we are doing, how can we do it better, how can we get our guys in a better position?
"Any time you have to prepare for Navy, it's a difficult week on a short amount of time. You basically put your whole defensive play book or schematic plan and put it over to the side of your desk and put on a whole new deal for them. And trying to simulate what they do. It's not like we've got a lot of option quarterbacks around here.
"Plus you add the next factor into it where they have thrown the ball quite a bit more throughout the year than what they've done in years past. So you've got to prepare for both of those things."
More good news for Tulsa is that the game is at Navy. At least Tulsa has a good history of being very competitive in the games in Annapolis. That is a much different story than the games at TU.
Quite frankly, TU has been atrocious against Navy at home in all of its games in Tulsa at Skelly/H.A. Chapman Stadium. Starting with a 29-0 debacle in 2004 in Steve Kragthorpe's second year, and resuming in 2015 when Tulsa started playing Navy annually as members of the AAC, the games in Tulsa have been ugly.
Last year was no exception when Navy drubbed TU 45-17. The 2017 game was 31-21, but wasn't as close as the score indicated, with TU completely out of the game in the fourth quarter. In 2015, it was a lopsided 44-21.
At Navy, however, Tulsa pulled a 24-23 overtime win under Kragthorpe in 2006 in his last year at TU where the Hurricane blocked an extra point to end the game. TU lost 42-40 in the controversial ending in 2016, and a 37-29 loss in 2018 was respectable, especially for a team going through a 3-9 season.
This season, even without the Navy quarterback rushing yards, fullbacks Nelson Smith and Jamole Carothers return and are more potent than ever. Carothers and Smith combined to average 95.8 yards per game last year. This year they combine for 117 yards per game. Smith had 142 yards rushing on 29 carries last week against Memphis, and leads Navy with 589 yards (5.6 avg.).
Back to the quarterbacks. Navy's 19.9 combined rushing yards per game from its quarterbacks is shocking. Its running backs still have to be accounted for, however, as they can break big plays. But they don't get nearly as many opportunities.
Running backs Myles Fells, C.J. Williams and Chance Warren combine to average 43.8 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry.
Given Tulsa's inability to stop Navy's run game in the past, Tulsa may welcome more passing. That plays into TU's strengths, with strong defensive backs led by Allie Green and Cristian Williams along with star linebacker Zaven Collins' ability to drop into coverage, evidenced by his four interceptions, including two pick sixes, this season.
Tulsa's 3-man defensive front of Jaxon Player, Tyarise Stevenson and Anthony Goodlow has been playing well. Player has been an especially disruptive force, as he has been all over the field causing havoc.
Tulsa will need to avoid getting off to a poor start, like it has done most of the time this season. Playing from behind is a recipe that will lead to trouble. Trying to catch up against a team that can grind time off the clock is always a bad thing.
The opportunity is there for Tulsa to do well against a Navy defense that is giving up an uncharacteristic 33.6 points per game, compared with 22.3 points per game in 2019.
Tulsa quarterback Zach Smith, injured in the first quarter against Tulane with a torso injury, is expected to start. Seth Boomer, who suffered a leg injury in the third quarter after replacing Smith, is out for the year. That elevates Brin, who passed for 266 yards in just over a quarter against Tulane, to second string.
As for Santana, catching the Hail Mary from Brin has made more people aware of what an emerging player he has become. The 6-1, 173-pound redshirt junior has a knack for big plays, but is also gaining consistency.
Santana has 23 catches for 353 yards (15.4 average) and three touchdowns, which is third on the team behind Keylon Stokes (31-446) and Josh Johnson (32-408). Sam Crawford (20-249) is always a threat as well.
The will to win has resonated with the entire Golden Hurricane this season, making its comeback wins possible.
"As a team, we've been focusing so hard all year on being great. I just didn't want us to lose," Santana said of his game-tying catch against Tulane. "I didn't want to be the reason we lost. I just was doing everything I could to make that catch."
All of the delays in playing and game postponements, amazingly, haven't hurt Tulsa at all in its preparation. If anything, it has made the Golden Hurricane stronger.
"With all the Carona going on, it is just hard to get a game," Santana said. "It's just a blessing to play a game - any game."
If Tulsa can earn a win on Saturday, it will stamp its spot in the AAC Championship game on Dec. 19 against Cincinnati, which has already marked its place in the title game. TU is scheduled to host Cincy at Chapman Stadium on Dec. 12.