Tulsa faces tough task at SMU

After laying an egg last week in a performance everyone would agree was awful, Tulsa has the chance to prove that was a fluke.

Is Tulsa going to be a team that has a chance of going to a bowl? Or is TU just not very good?

When Tulsa (3-4, 1-2 AAC) plays at SMU at 11 a.m. in Dallas Saturday, the Golden Hurricane isn't expected to win. When the oddsmakers have you as a 21-point underdog, that usually isn't a good thing.

But don't tell that to running back Anthony Watkins, who hails from the metroplex in Fort Worth.

"I love it. We're always going to be the underdogs, no matter what, just because of the name, and where we're at," said Watkins, who leads Tulsa in rushing with 396 yards. "But everything will tell when that day comes."

At first glance, SMU (5-2, 3-0) appears to be a really good team. They are coming off a 55-0 victory. Undefeated in conference play. Its only two losses were to No. 6 OU (7-0) 28-11, and TCU (4-4) 34-17.

But when looked at further, even though SMU should be clearly favored over Tulsa, this isn't a game where Tulsa is playing a team that is a juggernaut. If Tulsa plays well, it should have a chance at pulling off the upset.

When looking at SMU's schedule, it hasn't beaten a team that is even remotely decent all season. Really, they have 5 wins against truly awful teams.

The Mustangs' wins have come against Louisiana Tech (3-6) 38-14, Prairie View (3-4 FCS) 69-0, Charlotte (2-5, 1-6) 34-16, East Carolina (1-6, 0-3) 31-10, and Temple (2-6, 0-4) 55-0.

Tulsa got to see first-hand how bad Temple is. When you empty your bench in a 48-26 win that was nowhere as close as the score would indicate, like TU did this year in demolishing the Owls, it is pretty evident that SMU dominating last week means next to nothing, except that SMU can play.

Interestingly enough, SMU hasn't played a close game all season. Outside of two complete blowouts over dreadful teams, its other games have been from the 2 to 3 touchdown range. Comfortable wins.

If Tulsa can manage to get SMU into a close game going into the 4th quarter, who knows how things might end up. At least Tulsa has one close win, having won at Northern Illinois (4-4) 22-14.

For the Golden Hurricane to keep the game close, they must avoid ridiculous turnovers that have plagued them early in games this season. On three occasions, including last week's 42-10 debacle against Rice last week, Tulsa has turned the ball over three times in the first quarter.

Even after the turnovers, Tulsa got back in the game, trailing only 14-10 late in the first half. But a quick TD late in the half was followed by a disastrous 3rd quarter where Tulsa had two three-and-outs and allowed two long TD drives that put the game away.

"I didn't like the second half performance," TU coach Kevin Wilson. "I thought, for whatever reason, one of the few times I saw us not be strong or compete, not as solid as you would like to down the stretch.

"Defensively, we had fought through. All of a sudden, just totally flopped in the second half. And that's the first time that I've seen that."

Tulsa completely failed at facing former Georgia and USC starter J.T. Daniels last week. Tulsa is facing another good quarterback in redshirt sophomore Preston Stone (6-1, 219), who was a 4-star recruit out of Parish Episcopal in Dallas.

Stone is averaging 252.4 yards passing this season, completing 58.1 percent of his passes, with 16 TD passes and 5 interceptions. Stone torched TU last season in SMU's 45-34 win at TU in Stone's only start of his career prior to this season, going 28 of 48 for 388 yards and 2 TD's, as well as rushing for 63 yards and 2 scores on 14 carries. Stone has rushed for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns this season.

So how is Tulsa going to defend against a strong passing attack that has no standout receivers, but spreads the ball around a lot? Jake Bailey leads SMU with 26 catches for 294 yards.

Tulsa has only 9 sacks this season, and pressure on the passer has often been lacking, especially against OU, Washington and Rice. Tulsa's pass defense in those games was abysmal.

Does Tulsa try blitzing more in order to get more pressure on the passer?

"We've got to create it," Wilson said of the need for a good pass rush. "If you blitz, you're stressing your coverage a little bit. So, can you cover? With Coach Polizzi (defensive coordinator) and those guys looking at it with their receivers, do you match up? Can you cover them?

"If you protect the coverage, you can't sit there and let them pat the ball, and pat the ball, and pat the ball. You've got to get on them."

Ben Kopenski has 4.5 sacks to lead the way for Tulsa, and Owen Ostroski has 2.5 sacks. Vontroy Malone has 1 sack. They are all defensive ends. Linebackers Dorian Hopkins and Mitchell Kulkin have 0.5 sacks apiece.

Blitzing, which has been limited, has been a non-factor so far for Tulsa. That could possibly change a bit.

"I think you've got to pick your spots, you've got to have your mix," Wilson said. "I do think there's always merit to having blitz pressure. I think you have to be calculating on how you do it, whether it be first down, normal downs, or third downs.

"There's a part of that where you can create some stress. But at the same time you're trying to create stress, you're stressing yourself out with coverage, so you've better be able to get home and have some guys who can cover."

From the sound of it, there could be some more blitzing, but don't expect it in massive amounts.

"But it would be nice to have some blitzing," Wilson said. "Whether we're over aggressive with that or not, I'll trust Coach Polizzi. What I don't want to do is not blitz and not get pressure. Because we do have to get the quarterback off the spot the best we can."

SMU's running game is solid, with Jaylan Knighton leading the Ponies with 422 yards (5.5 yards per carry), while L.J. Johnson has 209 yards (6.0 ypc).

For Tulsa, the musical chairs at quarterback will continue until either Braylon Braxton or Cardell Williams takes control of the position. If one quarterback gets on a roll, the odds are he is going to stay in the game.

It would be interesting to see if Williams and Braxton both are ineffective against SMU or in other games, if Wilson would make the move towards true freshman Kirk Francis. Probably unlikely, but Wilson is impressed with Francis, a walk-on from Metro Christian.

"I like our quarterback Kirk Francis," Wilson said when discussing his freshmen. "He's not played yet, but I think he shows good promise."

Stranger things have happened than having Francis play. But it would take a lot for that to happen.

Other freshmen that are getting significant playing time and won't redshirt are TE Luke McGrary (5 catches, 65 yards), safety Devin Robinson, and defensive tackle R.J. Jackson.

Besides those freshmen, don't expect others to get significant playing time, although circumstances can change. Grayson Tempest from Union has played on special teams. He might get a shot at receiver. Cam Crooks from Cushing has had limited time at running back.

Tulsa's offense has suffered without its best receiver, Marquis Shoulders (16-283) the last two games. Shoulders has a foot issue, and running back Tahj Gary (187, 5.7 ypc) has a leg issue. Gary was starting to do well with more playing time before being injured at FAU. Both Shoulders and Gary won't play this week and could both be out of the season.

Devan Williams (22-315), Kamdyn Benjamin (16-270), Braylin Presley (8-114), Carl Chester (5-88) and Malachai Jones (2-46) will need to pick up their games if Braxton and Cardell Williams are to raise their level of play up high enough to win more games. Jones and Braxton are now both recovered after missing most of the season with ankle injuries.

Interestingly, Williams has a higher QB efficiency rating (149.5) than SMU’s Stone (139.8).

SMU's defense has played well this season, allowing only 14.6 points and 285.6 yards per game. But how much does that have to do with playing five dreadful teams?

If Williams and/or Braxton is successful against SMU, then Tulsa should have a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. If not, it could be a long game for the Golden Hurricane.

Regardless of the outcome against SMU, Tulsa should be favored in 3 of 4 of its remaining games this season. TU will likely be a 28-point or so underdog when it plays at No. 22 Tulane (6-1, 3-0). The Hurricane hosts Charlotte next week for Homecoming. After playing Tulane, Tulsa hosts North Texas (3-4, 1-2) followed by the season finale at hapless East Carolina.

So, the opportunity to have a winning season and go to a bowl game is still there for TU. But it is time for the Golden Hurricane to take advantage of that opportunity.