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Tulsa looking to bounce back at Navy on Saturday

Tulsa RB Deneric Prince returned last week after missing the first four games.
Tulsa RB Deneric Prince returned last week after missing the first four games. (USATSI)

The upcoming Navy game may be the pivotal game of the year for the Golden Hurricane.

A win in the Saturday afternoon game at 2:30 in Annapolis will show that Tulsa is headed in the right direction.

A victory would give the Golden Hurricane confidence. And start some momentum for TU. But a loss would put Tulsa in a tough hole in which to climb out. And would be discouraging, to say the least.

So far, Tulsa (2-3. 0-1 AAC) has pretty much done what would be realistically expected in its games, when looking at the schedule before the season.

Opening at Wyoming looked like a tough one, maybe a tossup, but going into the season, it was not a surprise that Tulsa lost. The next two home games against Northern Illinois and Jacksonville State looked to be wins although the NIU game figured to be tough. And NIU was really tough.

Last week against Cincinnati, when playing a team that was in the college football playoff the previous year, a win was possible, but ambitious. And Tulsa had its chances, but wasn't quite good enough.

But this Saturday's Navy game, where TU is listed as a surprising 6-point favorite, is a game that is likely to be decided in the last minutes.

On the positive side, Tulsa appears to be better than Navy. And thankfully for Tulsa, the game is at Navy.

Tulsa plays well in Annapolis. But the Golden Hurricane flat out stinks at home when playing the Midshipmen.

Last year's 20-17 home loss to a 4-8 Navy team was downright disappointing, especially since Navy wasn't very good. And because Navy had finished 3-7 the year before.

Unbelievably, Tulsa is 0-5 at home against Navy, and last year's loss was the only one of those games that was close. Contrast that with Tulsa's 2-2 record at Navy where Tulsa has played well in all the games. The close losses were to good Navy teams.

And Tulsa defeated Navy 19-6 in 2020 the last time TU played in Annapolis. A lot of players from that game will be on the field when the two teams meet again.

One of those players is starting safety Bryson Powers, who will be playing his 5th game against the Midshipmen. Powers is a Tulsa ironman, as the 6th year senior has played in all 51 games in the last 5 years at TU after redshirting his first year at TU.

"It's always difficult playing them. They're extremely physical, and then they run the triple option, which you don't see often anymore," Powers said. "But we've played them every year since I've been here, so we know what they're going to run coming in, and we've got to play assignment-sound football really against them."

The home vs. road performance of the two teams is one of the more bizarre facts about any rivalry Tulsa has ever had. It really makes no sense at all.

But given the way things have gone in the past, and given that Navy doesn't appear to be very good this season, there is good reason for optimism that Tulsa will improve its record to 3-2.

Navy (1-3, 1-1) had a shocking 14-7 opening day loss at home to FCS opponent Delaware. But Delaware is 5-0, so that loss may not be as bad as it seems. A 37-13 home loss to Memphis (4-1, 2-0) was awful, however.

The Midshipmen then won 23-20 on the road at East Carolina (3-2, 1-1), which is a good win. Then losing 13-10 last week at Air Force (4-1) wasn't a horrible loss.

So with the exception of getting clobbered at home by Memphis, Navy has been in every game.

Navy's defense has held up in most games, except against Memphis. The defense is only giving up 19.3 points per game. Outside of the Memphis game, the Midshipmen D only allows 13.3 points a game.

Defending against the pass hasn't been a strength for Navy's defense, allowing 256.8 yards per game through the air and 7 TD's with only 1 interception, and a 66.1 completion percentage. But its run defense has been good, allowing 135.7 yards per game at 3.0 yards per carry.

However, Navy's previously potent triple option, run oriented offense hasn't been very good. At all. Averaging 13.3 points per game isn't going to cut it.

Even worse, Navy is only averaging 176 yards rushing per game, at 3.2 yards per carry. The Mids are passing a lot more than normal, as quarterback Tai Lavatai has completed 26 of 50 passes for 515 yards, with 2 TD passes and no interceptions, for 128.8 yards per game.

Normally, in the past, Navy's offense will rarely crack the 100-yard mark passing. Lavatai was 11 of 20 for 129 yards last week at Air Force. Contrast that to last year's Tulsa game, where Navy had 0 passing yards, attempting only 3 passes.

Navy rushed for 114 yards on 35 carries for a 3.2 average last week. Lavatai led all rushers with 34 yards on 12 carries (2.8 avg). But against Tulsa last year, Navy had 302 yards on 60 carries (5.0 avg.).

Lavatai and reserve quarterback Xavier Arline are the only two runners with any experience against TU. Arline was the QB against TU in 2020, rushing 27 times for 60 yards, and completing 4 of 8 for 27 yards. Lavatai had 64 yards on 18 carries against TU in 2021 (3.6 avg.) .

Navy's leading rusher this year is slot back Marquel Haywood, who has 181 yards (5.2 avg.). He rushed for 9 yards on 7 carries last year at TU.

Navy's fullbacks, normally a huge part of its offense, have been ineffective so far. Fullbacks Anton Hall, Doba Fofana, and Logan Point have combined for 319 yards at 79.8 yards per game and a 2.95 yards per carry.

TU coach Philip Montgomery is probably tired of facing Navy's offense ever year. He knows the challenges of playing against its unique offense.

"Just because you don't ever see it," Montgomery said about why it is difficult to defend against Navy's offense. "It's very assignment sound football. They're going to create some angles. What they do blocking wise is a little bit different as well."

For Tulsa, besides stopping Navy's annoying, ball control offense, the biggest question will be Davis Brin's health. Last week against Cincy, he could barely move on a bad ankle. He did a lot of good things, but getting sacked 9 times by Cincinnati's relentless pass rush really hurt.

Will Brin be healthier this week? On his last play of the game, he limped off, reaggravating the ankle injury.

If not, will backup Braylon Braxton play more? With a healthy Brin, Tulsa should win. Without a healthy Brin, even though Braxton has done some good things the last two weeks, Tulsa's chances don't appear to be as good.

Despite Brin's ankle getting injured against Ole Miss when he was leading the nation in passing yards per game coming into the contest after three games (402), he is still ranked 8th in passing yards (1,555) and 9th (311) in passing yards per game.

Catching most of the passes so far is Keylon Stokes, who could set the TU career record for receiving yards against Navy. He needs only 181 yards to surpass Howard Twilley's 57-year-old record of 3,343 yards.

Stokes has been hot this year, with 37 catches for 613 yards and 3 TD's. Stokes is second in the nation in yards, third in yards per game (122.6) , and seventh in receptions per game (7.4).

If Stokes has a big day, it will probably mean Tulsa will score enough points in the game to defeat Navy, since the Midshipmen aren't likely to score a lot of points.

A win is really needed at this point for TU.

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