As most people expected going into the season, Tulsa's game at Northern Illinois will be the game that tells a lot about the Golden Hurricane.
Because, let's face it. Virtually everyone thought Tulsa would easily defeat Arkansas-Pine Bluff in its opener, and then would lose convincingly against powerhouse programs Washington and OU in the next two weeks.
So, with no surprise outcomes so far, playing at Northern Illinois in DeKalb, 65 miles west of downtown Chicago, at 11 a.m. Saturday morning is a big game for TU football in coach Kevin Wilson's inaugural season for Tulsa.
Not that it is a must win game, but it is close. Win the game, and Tulsa is 2-2 and has some confidence going into conference seasons. Lose the game, and things could start to spiral downward.
The biggest surprise of the season for Tulsa has been at quarterback, where injuries have had a huge impact. Projected starter Braylon Braxton has barely played, leaving early in the first game with an ankle injury.
With Braxton not expected to play again this week, the outcome will likely rest in Cardell Williams' hands. Wilson tried to get away with starting third-stringer Roman Fuller last week, as Williams' bruised hand he suffered the previous week at Washington was not quite healed.
But with three disastrous first quarter interceptions by OU against Fuller that led to a 28-0 deficit, Williams had to come in at the end of the first quarter. And he played really well until midway through the third quarter when the Sooners relentless pass rush got the best of Williams and TU.
"Cardell played a whale of a game," Wilson said of Williams against OU. "Maybe a couple of poor decisions on some throws.”
Williams ended up 11 of 17 for 196 yards with 2 TD passes on his first two drives, and later got intercepted twice.
"Cardell has shown some flashes. He has also shown some immaturity and inconsistency, whether it be in practice or in the first game on the road," Wilson said. "He's stepped up and shown himself well."
No way Fuller starts at NIU if Williams or Braxton are anywhere near 100 percent.
Tulsa (1-2) gets to face an NIU team it barely beat last year, winning a 38-35 thriller at home at H.A. Chapman Stadium. It was an annoying game where Tulsa led 24-7 at halftime but had to come back to win in the last two minutes.
At the time, it looked like a good victory and a sign of good things to come. TU quarterback Davis Brin was playing really well, and defeating a Northern Illinois team that finished 9-3 the previous season against quarterback Rocky Lombardi was impressive.
But when Brin injured his ankle, Tulsa's season went south until the last couple of games when Braxton took over and played well. And Lombardi only played 4 games, getting hurt as well, and the Huskies finished 3-9.
"Their head coach, Thomas Hammock, is an old running back, a great running back. I remember his days playing," Wilson said. "They limit possessions. They play-action pass."
The 42-year-old Hammock was a star running back at NIU from 1999-2002, rushing for over 1,000 yards twice. But his career was cut short as a senior due to some heart issues. In his fifth-year at head coach at Northern Illinois, Hammock was a running backs coach for the Baltimore Ravens for 5 years, and before that, for Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The key to stopping the Huskies is to stop Lombardi, a sixth-year senior who completed 18 of 31 passes for 259 yards and 3 TDs, as well as rushing for a touchdown, against TU last year. In 2021, Lombardi rushed for 473 yards and 9 TDs and passed for 2,597 yards and 15 TDs with 8 interceptions. He got some playing time in his first three seasons in college at Michigan State.
"They've got a veteran quarterback. Two years ago, they were 9-3 and playing for their conference championship (MAC). Last year he got injured, and they didn't have quite as good of a year," Wilson said. "That quarterback played in the Big 10. I played against him when he was a player at Michigan State. So, I respect him."
Running back Antario Brown leads the Huskies with 130 yards and a 2.8 yards per carry average. Brown had 73 yards rushing and a TD on 20 carries last season against TU. He had 538 yards rushing - third for NIU last season.
Northern Illinois (1-2) is a tough team to judge. Yes, the Huskies are coming off a 3-9 season. But they historically have had good seasons.
NIU's 27-24 overtime win at Boston College in Week 1 this season is impressive, but also hard to gauge. Boston College finished 3-9 in 2021, but it is just coming off a 31-29 nail biting loss to No. 3 ranked Florida State.
A loss to Southern Illinois (3-0) at home is not impressive to say the least, considering the Salukis are an FBS team that finished 5-6 in 2022. However, SIU is frequently a good FCS team.
The 35-11 loss last week to Nebraska is probably as expected. Nebraska's days of Johnny Rodgers and National Championships seem like they happened in the stone ages. The Huskers finished 4-8 in 2022, and have turned into a bottom feeder in the Big 10. But still, they have some talent.
As for Tulsa, throwing 5 interceptions isn't going to cut it on any week. Wilson knows that can't happen again if TU expects to win any games.
"Most of those interceptions were not on the quarterback, but it's a team deal," Wilson said. "Are we calling plays right, or our receivers aren't competing for some balls."
Wilson is calling on his receivers to up their games.
"I'd like to see some of the older guys increase their roles a little bit," Wilson said of his receivers. "Right now, we're kind of torn between our young guys are our best players, and our old guys need to pick it up and finish strong and complement. Or we're going to have to start playing some of our true freshmen to complement our receiving."
Redshirt freshman Devan Williams was the best of Tulsa's receivers against OU, catching 6 passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. He has 11 catches for 148 yards this season.
"I think Devan has played much better than I thought (he would)," Wilson said.
Marquis Shoulders leads TU with 207 yards receiving and 3 TDs on 11 catches. Braylin Presley has only 3 catches for 54 yards - all against Washington. Experienced Malachai Jones has been hobbled by an ankle injury and hasn't played much so far.
Overall, Wilson likes a lot about what Tulsa is doing this season despite some rough moments.
"I do think our team has a good vibe. I think they practice really hard. I think they've competed and have played very hard physically," Wilson said. "I like the look in our guys' eyes."
Having gotten off to poor starts in the first three weeks of games with turnover problems is something Wilson said needs to stop.
"We need to start with momentum. We need to make plays," Wilson said. "And we cannot have turnovers in this game.
"We're playing a really good team. We're going to have to play our best game to win."
